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Public broadcaster projections placed the Alternative for Germany at 44.5 percent in the Saxony-Anhalt state election, well ahead of the Christian Democratic Union on 18.5 percent. The Left Party took between 9.0 and 9.5 percent while the Greens stood at 8.5 to 9.0 percent and the Social Democrats between 8.0 and 9.0 percent, according to figures reported by MDR and Focus Online. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance hovered near the 5 percent threshold at 4.8 to 5.0 percent with the Free Democrats falling short at 2.0 to 2.5 percent. A Reuters review of the polling noted the result would more than double the AfD’s support from the 20.8 percent it received in the 2021 state vote while inflicting heavy losses on the CDU, which had stood at 37.1 percent in that earlier contest.
The New York Times analysis of recent eastern state votes found the AfD had already taken a plurality in Thuringia with 32.8 percent in 2024, the first such far-right success in a German state since World War Two, though other parties refused to form a coalition with it. Saxony-Anhalt, where the AfD is classified as a confirmed right-wing extremist organization by the state office for the protection of the constitution, has shown strong support for the party in rural areas where economic concerns and immigration issues dominate. A Deutsche Welle assessment highlighted that the state, predominantly rural with only two major cities exceeding 200,000 residents, has a history of far-right activity including a 12.9 percent showing by the German People’s Union in 1998. The current projections indicate the AfD could secure enough seats for an absolute majority if smaller parties drop below the 5 percent parliamentary threshold.
Reuters reporting on pre-election surveys showed the AfD polling above 40 percent for months under its state leader Ulrich Siegmund, raising the prospect of the party forming a government alone for the first time in postwar German history. The Christian Democratic Union, which has led the state since reunification in 1990, saw its support collapse under incumbent Premier Sven Schulze, according to the same projections. Coalition talks would become complex even without an outright majority because all mainstream parties have ruled out partnering with the AfD while the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance has not entirely excluded the possibility. The outcome tests the stability of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s federal government ahead of national challenges.
Turnout reached 65.3 percent by 4 p.m. local time, some 24 percentage points higher than at the equivalent stage of the 2021 election, according to the state’s election authority cited by The New York Times. The increased participation reflected heightened voter engagement in a contest that could reshape eastern German politics. Public broadcaster data indicated the AfD drew support across age groups but particularly among those concerned with economic revitalization and stricter immigration controls. The result aligns with the party’s broader gains in eastern states where it now leads national opinion polls in some surveys.
An Associated Press summary of prior eastern elections noted that after the AfD’s 2024 successes in Thuringia and near-miss in Saxony, mainstream parties have coordinated to block it from power, as seen in the election of a CDU speaker in Thuringia’s parliament despite the AfD’s plurality. Saxony-Anhalt’s vote adds to that pattern but with the potential for a different outcome if the AfD crosses the majority threshold. The domestic intelligence classification of the party’s state chapter has not slowed its rise, according to Deutsche Welle reporting on regional extremism trends. Final official results are expected in the coming days after full counting concludes.
The Guardian coverage of pre-vote polling placed the AfD at 40 to 41 percent in final surveys, framing the contest as a potential breakthrough that would mark the first far-right regional government since 1945. This projection exceeds the party’s performance in the 2024 Thuringia and Saxony votes, where it peaked at around one-third of the ballot. The CDU’s sharp decline from its previous dominant position underscores shifting voter priorities in the former East German territory, a Reuters assessment found. No mainstream party has signaled willingness to break the cordon sanitaire around the AfD despite the scale of its projected win.
