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Dmitry Muratov, who received the 2021 Nobel Peace Prize jointly with the Russian human rights organisation Memorial, told the BBC that the Russian president cannot declare success in the full-scale invasion of Ukraine that began in February 2022. The veteran journalist, former editor of the independent Novaya Gazeta newspaper, argued that the Kremlin’s stated goals remain unmet after more than four years of fighting. Muratov highlighted the human cost to Russian society and questioned the sustainability of continued operations, according to the BBC interview.
The conflict has left Russia in control of roughly 20 percent of Ukrainian territory, according to a Council on Foreign Relations assessment updated in early August 2026. Moscow fully occupies Luhansk province while holding significant portions of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the assessment found. Ukrainian forces have conducted counteractions, including operations that regained ground in Zaporizhzhia province earlier this year, the Council on Foreign Relations report added.
A Center for Strategic and International Studies analysis published in January 2026 placed total Russian military casualties at nearly 1.2 million killed, wounded or missing since the invasion started, with as many as 325,000 killed through December 2025. The same report estimated Ukrainian military casualties between 500,000 and 600,000 over the same period. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated at the end of July 2026 that Russian forces have suffered almost 700,000 killed in action and about 1.6 million total casualties, Ukrainian General Staff data shows.
The Institute for the Study of War reported that Russian forces advanced across just 37.85 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory during July 2026, an area smaller than Manhattan, while suffering 42,860 casualties that month. Russian monthly advances in 2026 have remained far below 2025 levels, with the July figure marking no operationally significant gains, according to the institute’s August 1 assessment. Data compiled by Russia Matters indicated that Russian territorial control in Ukraine actually shrank during the spring of 2026, with net losses recorded in both April and May.
Russia’s war economy has shown clear signs of strain under the pressure of sustained high casualties and military spending, a separate Center for Strategic and International Studies review found. Manufacturing activity declined and gross domestic product growth slowed to 0.6 percent in 2025, the review noted. The assessment warned that combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties could reach 2 million by spring 2026 if current rates of loss continue.
Muratov has repeatedly used his Nobel platform to criticise the war and its impact on Russian society, including in earlier interviews with international outlets such as El Pais in November 2025. The journalist has faced increasing restrictions within Russia, where Novaya Gazeta was forced to suspend print operations after the invasion began. In the BBC conversation, Muratov emphasised that many Russians now believe the country has lost its future prospects because of the conflict.
Peace negotiations mediated by the United States have failed to produce a ceasefire, with both sides divided over territorial concessions and security guarantees for Ukraine, the Council on Foreign Relations tracker stated. Russian officials continue to assert that battlefield objectives will be met, yet independent assessments show the rate of advance has slowed to between 15 and 70 metres per day in key sectors, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
