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Lithuanian Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevičius has outlined his country’s readiness to resist aggression while confirming preparations for civilian evacuations in the event of conflict with Russia. In an interview with the BBC’s Newsnight programme broadcast on September 22, 2026, Sinkevičius said Lithuanians feel constantly threatened by Russia, partly due to repeated drone incursions into national airspace. He stated that if attacked, “we will fight back… we will engage,” while noting that authorities have drawn up plans for multiple contingencies, including the orderly evacuation of elderly residents from urban areas to prevent traffic congestion.
The prime minister emphasised that some planning remains out of the public eye to maintain strategic flexibility. “We’re thinking about a variety of scenarios, not all of them are being discussed very much publicly,” Sinkevičius told the BBC. “We face concrete threats, not on a daily basis, but we’re experiencing them and it’s a true reality for us.” Lithuania, which joined NATO in 2004, shares a direct land border with Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave and is in close proximity to Belarus, Moscow’s key regional ally.
A Lithuanian intelligence assessment released in March 2026 reported that Russia is expanding military units along NATO borders and acquiring combat experience through its operations in Ukraine. According to the assessment, if Western sanctions were lifted, Russia could reconstitute its forces sufficiently to be prepared for a large-scale conventional conflict with NATO within six years. The report highlighted that Moscow’s strategic goals continue to include tipping the European balance of power and achieving the full subjugation of Ukraine.
Lithuania has substantially increased its defence budget in response to the heightened risks, directing approximately 5 percent of GDP toward military spending in 2026. Euronews reported in January that this funding supports the creation of a national division expected to achieve full operational capability by 2030, incorporating advanced systems such as HIMARS rocket artillery and CV90 infantry fighting vehicles. The investments follow a near-doubling of defence outlays between 2021 and 2023 as the Baltic states collectively surpassed NATO’s 2 percent GDP benchmark.
Germany is proceeding with plans to station a permanent armoured brigade of around 5,000 troops in Lithuania by the end of 2027, a development detailed in Euronews coverage of joint exercises held earlier this year. This brigade will integrate with the existing NATO multinational battlegroup and air policing mission, which already involves thousands of allied personnel from multiple member states. Lithuanian officials have described the German commitment as a significant enhancement to deterrence on the alliance’s eastern flank.
Separate planning documents from mid-September revealed that Vilnius city authorities have mapped specific evacuation routes, including corridors leading into Poland as well as northward to Panevėžys and Šiauliai or westward toward Kaunas and Klaipėda. The head of the Civil Defence Department at Vilnius City Hall told Polish Radio that evacuations would commence prior to any direct threat materialising in order to maintain control and avoid disorder. Transportation arrangements would be coordinated by local officials for residents without personal vehicles, with the overall process designed to ensure it remains managed rather than chaotic.
Lithuania has consistently ranked among the strongest supporters of Ukraine, providing aid amounting to more than 2 percent of its GDP in recent years according to multiple reports. Former Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė stated in April 2026 that continued assistance to Ukrainian forces is essential to securing Europe’s future and constraining Russian ambitions. The country has also participated in regional initiatives to bolster collective defence, including hosting NATO exercises and contributing to EU-funded defence projects worth billions of euros through 2030.
