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The National Hurricane Center placed Hurricane Polo at peak Category 5 strength early on September 23 with maximum sustained winds near 165 mph and a central pressure of 905 millibars. The storm was positioned about 200 miles south of Zihuatanejo and 355 miles southeast of Manzanillo, according to the agency’s intermediate advisory. Forecasters noted that tropical-storm-force winds were already brushing the coast while the intense inner core remained at sea.
A building mid-level ridge over Mexico is forecast to steer Polo northwestward later on September 23 followed by a general west-northwest track through the weekend, the National Hurricane Center reported in its discussion. This path should keep the hurricane’s center just offshore of southwestern Mexico through Thursday before it pulls away toward the Baja California peninsula. The agency cautioned that the exact track still carries uncertainty regarding how close the system will approach the coast.
Polo is expected to fluctuate in intensity but remain a powerful major hurricane for several days before gradual weakening sets in from increased easterly wind shear and drier air, according to National Hurricane Center intensity guidance. The storm underwent rapid intensification in the preceding 48 hours after beginning as a tropical depression, a development the agency attributed to very warm sea-surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear. Reuters reported that the cyclone reached Category 5 status on September 22 as models consistently projected further strengthening.
Heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts up to 8 inches is expected across coastal sections of Guerrero and Michoacan through Thursday, the National Hurricane Center stated. This precipitation is likely to produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides particularly in areas of steep terrain, the agency warned in its key messages. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is possible in parts of Oaxaca, Colima and Jalisco as outer rainbands spread inland.
Mexican civil protection authorities issued alerts for intense rains that could cause rivers to overflow in western and southern regions, Reuters reported on September 22. The national agency urged residents in flood-prone zones to identify higher ground and safe evacuation routes while advising against walking or driving through flooded streets. Officials also called for the removal of beach equipment and outdoor furniture to reduce wind-related hazards.
Tropical Storm Warnings cover portions of southwestern Mexico with a Tropical Storm Watch extending westward to Playa Perula, according to the National Hurricane Center. Swells generated by Polo are forecast to produce dangerous surf, rip currents and coastal flooding along the coast during the coming days. The agency emphasised that interests in the affected areas should monitor updates closely as the forecast evolves.
