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Brazil’s presidential election has entered a decisive phase ahead of Sunday’s runoff, where incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva trails right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro following the first round in early October that saw the challenger secure 47 percent of the vote to Lula’s 45 percent. High abstention affected more than 33 million eligible voters, the highest since 1998, according to electoral authorities, complicating efforts by both campaigns to mobilize support. A Datafolha poll published this week showed the race tightening to a statistical tie, with Bolsonaro at 51 percent and Lula at 49 percent among decided voters.
BBC News reported from Betim, a former industrial hub, where resident accounts illustrate how deindustrialization has transformed local employment from factory work to service-oriented and gig roles. Union leader Jose Almazan told the outlet, “We had strong deindustrialisation here. The profile of the working class changed. They are no longer predominantly industrial workers, they are service workers.” Metal, chemical and textile factories have closed while shopping malls expanded, a shift that has weakened traditional union ties central to Lula’s historical base, the report noted. How Brazil’s changing working class is reshaping the presidential race has become a central theme as candidates adjust their messaging.
IBGE figures show the number of self-employed workers in Brazil has grown nearly 30 percent since 2012 to reach 26 million, now accounting for 25 percent of the workforce, outpacing growth in formal CLT-registered employment. According to a Christian Science Monitor assessment, support for Lula’s Workers’ Party has eroded particularly among the C class, urban aspiring middle-income earners between 2,525 and 10,885 reais monthly who increasingly identify as micro-entrepreneurs. The outlet reported Lula received 3.3 million fewer votes in the first round than in 2022, with analysts attributing much of the loss to this demographic’s preference for reduced government intervention and emphasis on individual opportunity.
Unionization rates have fallen sharply, reaching 8.9 percent in 2024 from 15.7 percent a decade earlier, Reuters data from official sources indicates, as the gig economy expands in the wake of the pandemic. Getulio Vargas Foundation political scientist Marco Teixeira told Reuters that the Workers’ Party has struggled to craft a message that resonates with app-based workers who lack a traditional employer. In response, Lula’s administration backed a constitutional amendment approved by Congress this month that ends the six-day workweek, gradually reducing maximum hours from 44 to 40 without pay cuts, a move his campaign has highlighted to reconnect with labor voters.
An Ideia/Meio poll from October 21 found Bolsonaro leading among those who view starting a business as a path to improvement, capturing 62.3 percent support in that group compared with Lula’s 33.5 percent. Valor International quoted consumer behavior expert Renato Meirelles of the Locomotiva Institute describing the lower-middle class of roughly 107 million Brazilians as pragmatic, seeking quality public services while resisting interference in personal economic choices. This group, which includes many who rose from poverty under earlier Lula governments, has shown growing openness to right-wing appeals centered on security, anti-corruption and economic self-reliance, the expert noted.
Brazil’s labor informality rate dropped to 37.5 percent in early 2026 from 38.4 percent a year earlier, with 38.5 million workers outside formal registration, according to IBGE statistics that also recorded average real income reaching a series high of 3,652 reais. Despite record-low unemployment at 5.1 percent at the end of 2025, frustration over living costs persists, CNN reporting indicated, eroding perceptions of economic management even as social programs continue. Both campaigns have intensified street mobilization and digital outreach in the final days, targeting the large pool of abstainers to sway the outcome in what remains one of Latin America’s most closely watched political contests.
