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President Donald Trump told reporters on September 9, 2026, that the ongoing conflict with Iran would end immediately after the midterm elections as he prepared to fly to Texas for the Republican Party’s first midterm convention. “I think the war is going to end immediately after the election because they can’t hold out any longer,” Trump said of Iranian leaders. He accused Tehran of escalating the fighting to affect the vote, saying the Iranians were “desperate to try and affect the election so that we can get a nice weak group of people in there and leave them alone and let them have their nuclear weapon.”
The prediction came as benchmark oil prices climbed above $100 a barrel for the first time since July amid renewed clashes in the Middle East, according to multiple news outlets that tracked the surge. “Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward,” Trump told reporters, while noting the decline would not occur before the vote. Reuters reported that the conflict has entered its seventh month, with recent Iranian attacks on shipping near the Strait of Hormuz prompting US strikes on Iranian oil tankers.
Trump’s comments reflect growing unease within the Republican Party over the war’s impact on domestic issues, a Politico assessment found. The president faces record-low approval ratings due to voter frustration with the conflict and a deepening cost-of-living crisis, Reuters figures show. He is seeking to rally his party ahead of the November 3 midterm elections, at which Republicans risk losing their narrow majorities in Congress.
A Wall Street Journal report cited warnings from Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other officials that the conflict could extend beyond the January 2029 presidential inauguration despite Trump’s optimistic timeline. The White House responded that “President Trump has destroyed Iran’s military capabilities and is crippling what’s left of its abysmal economy with the most powerful naval blockade in world history and crushing sanctions,” according to the newspaper. Trump acknowledged that negotiations remained possible but said they were not the administration’s focus.
Midterm elections will be held on November 3, 2026, and will serve as a referendum on the Trump administration, according to an Associated Press overview of the calendar. Historically, the party controlling the White House tends to lose seats in Congress during such votes, a pattern documented across every postwar election cycle by the Bipartisan Policy Center. Democrats need net gains of three House seats and four Senate seats to flip control of those chambers.
The president has repeatedly adjusted timelines for ending the war, which began earlier in 2026 with US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, a GlobalSecurity.org compilation of developments indicated. In July, Trump dismissed any electoral impact on his strategy after the deaths of three US service members in related actions, according to a separate Politico report from that period. He has since signaled that further US operations could target additional Iranian assets if attacks continue.
