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With polls now closed across Brazil on Sunday, electoral officials from the Superior Electoral Court began preparing for the release of initial results in the hours ahead, according to reports from multiple Brazilian news outlets. Final surveys conducted in the days immediately before the vote indicated that neither leading candidate is expected to surpass the 50 percent threshold of valid votes required to avoid a second round. A Datafolha poll released on October 3 placed Lula at 45 percent and Flávio Bolsonaro at 42 percent among valid votes after interviewing 4,006 voters in person with a 2 percentage point margin of error.
The same Datafolha survey projected Lula at 47 percent and Flávio Bolsonaro at 46 percent in a potential runoff on October 25. A separate Quaest poll commissioned by Globo and conducted on October 2 and 3 showed Lula at 46 percent to Flávio Bolsonaro’s 45 percent in the first round among valid votes based on 3,702 respondents. That survey pointed to a possible advantage for Flávio Bolsonaro in a runoff scenario according to the polling firm.
An AtlasIntel poll reported by Reuters in late September found the two candidates statistically tied in a simulated runoff with each receiving approximately 47.7 percent and 47.6 percent respectively within the survey’s margin of error. The AtlasIntel first-round figures gave Lula 45.3 percent and Flávio Bolsonaro 42.2 percent with other candidates including Renan Santos and Augusto Cury in single digits. A Valor International assessment of earlier Datafolha results from September 25 showed similar patterns with Lula at 40 percent and Flávio Bolsonaro at 36 percent in the initial round.
The contest features incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party seeking reelection against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party who is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Brazilian electoral rules as applied by the Superior Electoral Court mandate a runoff between the top two finishers if no candidate exceeds 50 percent of valid votes which exclude blanks and nulls. Coverage from The Hindu noted that a series of polls released on October 3 all signaled a likely second round on October 25.
Economic policies public security and expansions to social programs such as Bolsa Família have featured prominently in the campaign according to a Newsweek compilation of polling data. A CNT/MDA survey cited in The Hindu placed Lula at 47.8 percent and Flávio Bolsonaro at 42.1 percent in the first round with a 2.2 percentage point margin of error after fieldwork from September 30 to October 2. Additional context from Latin Times highlighted how the race has remained within margins of error across firms including PoderData and Meio/Ideia in surveys taken throughout September.
Prediction markets tracked by Newsweek on the eve of the vote gave Flávio Bolsonaro roughly a 57 percent implied chance of ultimately winning the presidency including any runoff while poll averages continued to show a narrow Lula edge in the first round. Reuters reporting on the AtlasIntel data emphasized that the tight figures leave little room for error as vote counting proceeds from polling stations in all regions. Final certified results from the electoral court will determine the precise tallies and whether a second round proceeds as anticipated by the collected surveys.
