ع
Voters across Brazil went to the polls on Sunday for the first round of the 2026 presidential election with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro emerging as the clear leaders in pre-vote surveys. A Reuters dispatch on the final day of campaigning noted that both candidates expressed confidence in victory despite indications of a probable second round. The election will also renew Congress and select state governors determining leadership for the next four years starting in January 2027.
According to a Council on Foreign Relations report published ahead of the vote the outcome will influence Brazil’s relations with the United States China and the broader Global South at a time of shifting international alliances.[[1]](https://www.cfr.org/articles/brazils-2026-election-what-to-know-and-whats-at-stake) Lula seeking a fourth term at age 80 has highlighted his record on reducing poverty through programs like Bolsa Família during his previous administrations. Flávio Bolsonaro the 45-year-old son of former President Jair Bolsonaro has courted his father’s base by promising continuity on security and conservative policies.
Polls from Datafolha Quaest and others cited by Al Jazeera place Lula between 37 and 46 percent in voting intention with Flávio Bolsonaro trailing slightly but gaining ground in some surveys.[[2]](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/3/what-to-know-about-brazils-2026-presidential-election) If neither reaches 50 percent of valid votes the top two will face off on October 25 in a runoff that simulations show would be even closer. The presence of undecided voters and lower-polling candidates could still sway the first-round result.
Jair Bolsonaro who governed from 2019 to 2023 is ineligible to run and is serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest for his role in plotting to overturn the 2022 election CNN reported.[[3]](https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/04/americas/brazil-president-elections-2026-latam-intl) The younger Bolsonaro has distanced himself somewhat from his father’s more confrontational style while maintaining core right-wing positions on crime and the economy. Lula in contrast has focused on social issues health and an independent foreign policy that avoids alignment with U.S.-led initiatives.
Campaign events on Saturday drew large crowds with Lula addressing supporters in Sao Paulo by framing the vote as a battle between democracy and barbarism per Reuters accounts.[[4]](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-lula-flavio-bolsonaro-wrap-up-campaigns-ahead-first-round-vote-2026-10-03/) Flávio Bolsonaro led rallies and a motorcycle caravan in Sao Paulo state predicting a first-round win. Both have addressed key voter concerns including inflation corruption and drug-related violence.
An analysis by the Guardian highlighted how the race tests the influence of a growing pro-Trump bloc in Latin America with Flávio Bolsonaro pledging cooperation on anti-drug efforts that Lula has criticized as infringing on sovereignty.[[5]](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/oct/03/brazil-election-lula-bolsonaro-trump) Corruption scandals involving figures linked to both sides have risen in prominence during the final weeks. The vote occurs against a backdrop of voter fatigue from polarization with rejection rates high for the leading pair as detailed in assessments including What to know about Brazil’s election pitting Lula against Flávio Bolsonaro.
