Brent crude futures rose to $81.66 per barrel on Monday amid supply concerns, WAM reported. The rise comes as markets assess risks from reduced production in the Middle East, with the EIA forecasting sharp inventory declines in the second quarter of 2026.
The Emirates News Agency said the price increase reflects investor worries over potential further disruptions to oil flows through critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz. According to the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, oil production in the Middle East dropped by more than 11 million barrels per day in May compared with pre-conflict levels. The agency expects global oil inventories to fall by an average of 6.3 million b/d in the second quarter of 2026.
WAM noted that the benchmark had gained amid these concerns even as some optimism emerged from peace talks. A Wall Street Journal report indicated that Brent crude had previously reached near 4-year highs above $115 per barrel as the conflict widened. This volatility underscores the sensitivity of oil markets to geopolitical events in the region, according to market observers.
Industry analysts have pointed to the role of OPEC+ production decisions in the current price environment. J.P. Morgan Global Research projected Brent crude to average around $60 per barrel for 2026, citing soft supply-demand fundamentals in its assessment. The forecast contrasts with the current trading levels driven by immediate supply risks, J.P. Morgan analysts said.
Further context from market data shows that prices had fallen in May following reports of a possible US-Iran agreement, according to multiple outlets. However, renewed concerns have pushed values back up to the $81 level, WAM reported. The EIA anticipates that once shipping resumes, prices could average $79 per barrel in 2027.
The report from WAM comes as traders monitor developments in regional diplomacy closely. Reduced output from affected producers has tightened the global balance, according to the EIA. This situation has also impacted related energy products and regional economies dependent on oil exports, industry data shows.
In addition, the US Energy Information Administration warned that OECD oil inventories could reach their lowest levels since 2003 under current assumptions. Such low stocks amplify the effect of any additional supply news on prices, the EIA assessment found. Market participants will be watching for updates on the status of the Strait of Hormuz, according to trading reports.
