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Initial projections showed the Alternative for Germany more than doubling its vote share from the last election to win outright in Saxony-Anhalt, a German Marshall Fund of the United States assessment found. The Christian Democratic Union saw its support halved in the eastern state where Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s party had long held sway. This marks the first time since 1949 that the far-right has secured a state election victory by such a margin according to the assessment.
The result builds on the party’s advances in 2024 when it took 32.8 percent in Thuringia and 30.6 percent in Saxony a Foundation for Political Innovation report detailed. Several eastern branches of the party including the one in Saxony-Anhalt have been classified as extremist by domestic intelligence services. Support among voters aged 18 to 24 has grown notably contributing to the broadening appeal.
European reactions split along ideological lines with France’s Europe Minister Benjamin Haddad describing the outcome as a serious moment for the continent. Spain’s Vox leader Santiago Abascal called the victory a great hope for Germany and for Europe in remarks on social media. The contrasting statements highlight fractures within the European Union over nationalist gains.
A Center for Strategic and International Studies analysis concluded that an AfD-led state government would deliver symbolic shock across Europe given the party’s positions on Russia and historical issues. Such a development risks contributing to paralysis in EU decision-making on defense spending and foreign policy the analysis found. Germany’s traditional leadership role in the bloc could face constraints amid heightened domestic divisions.
Chancellor Merz has seen his approval drop to 13 percent the lowest recorded for an incumbent according to recent polling. Coalition talks in Saxony-Anhalt will test the longstanding refusal by mainstream parties to cooperate with the AfD a practice in place since the party’s founding. The outcome may influence political dynamics in neighboring eastern states where the party maintains strong polling numbers.
Exit polls indicated that immigration economic pressures and attitudes toward Russia ranked high among voter priorities in the ballot. AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund stated that the party has won a clear mandate to govern. The success follows years of steady growth that has seen the party lead national polls in multiple eastern regions.
