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Polling stations opened Sunday in Berlin and the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern where Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union risks further setbacks that could intensify calls for his replacement. Opinion surveys cited by Reuters placed the CDU at risk of its worst-ever result in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern with support hovering near the 5 percent threshold for parliamentary entry while the far-right Alternative for Germany threatened to challenge the center-left Social Democrats for first place. In the capital the conservatives faced a tight battle with the far-left Die Linke that could cost them the mayor’s office according to assessments published by US News and World Report.
The latest ballots follow the Alternative for Germany’s strong showing in Saxony-Anhalt two weeks earlier where the party secured 43.8 percent of the vote and the CDU slumped to 17.2 percent its weakest performance there since reunification a Wikipedia compilation of official results noted. That outcome left the AfD just short of an absolute majority and revived debate over whether mainstream parties would maintain their longstanding refusal to cooperate with the far-right group. Multiple outlets including The Guardian reported that the result sent shock waves through the CDU and prompted Merz to concede it had shaken his party to its foundations.
Merz who took office 16 months ago after leading the CDU to power in a coalition with the Social Democrats has seen his approval ratings collapse to around 14 percent according to an INSA poll for Bild reported across several outlets including POLITICO. National surveys placed the AfD in first position nationally at 28 to 29 percent with the Union bloc near 20 percent a shift that has fueled open discussion of a so-called Kanzlertausch or chancellor swap. Potential successors mentioned in German media include North Rhine-Westphalia premier Hendrik Wüst and Bavarian leader Markus Söder though no formal challenge has materialized.
The chancellor canceled a planned appearance at the United Nations General Assembly and scheduled a crisis meeting with party leaders immediately after polls close Reuters correspondents noted. Eight CDU state premiers issued a joint statement backing Merz and warning that personnel debates would not restore public trust a move reported by BBC News on September 16. Merz has insisted he will continue and has ruled out any cooperation with the AfD while pledging to pursue economic reforms aimed at reviving growth in Europe’s largest economy.
Germany’s sluggish economic performance and voter discontent over issues ranging from migration to energy costs have contributed to the AfD’s momentum in the formerly communist eastern states where the party has campaigned on anti-immigration and pro-Russia positions. A Berenberg Bank research note cited by Yahoo News suggested the risk of a CDU revolt against Merz had risen to around 35 percent after the Saxony-Anhalt outcome. The chancellor told reporters after that earlier vote that giving up was not an option and that his government would stick to its reform agenda despite the setbacks.
Results from Sunday’s contests are expected to emerge after polls close at 6 p.m. local time with exit polls likely to shape immediate reactions in Berlin. The outcomes could influence whether Merz’s coalition maintains stability until the next federal election due in 2029 or faces renewed pressure that might trigger early votes. Analysts quoted by The Independent warned that further AfD gains would complicate efforts to deliver on tax pension and long-term care changes that the government has promised.
