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The Paris appeals court is scheduled to announce at 1:30 p.m. local time whether it will uphold Marine Le Pen’s conviction for embezzling European Parliament funds, the Associated Press reported in its explainer on the case. Le Pen was found guilty in March 2025 of a scheme that misused €1.4 million to pay National Rally party staff disguised as parliamentary assistants between 2004 and 2016. A New York Times analysis noted that an upheld ban of more than two years from public office, dating from the original sentencing, would prevent the National Rally leader from standing in next year’s election where polling averages place her in a leading position.
Prosecutors had asked the appeals court to impose a four-year prison sentence with three years suspended along with the five-year ban, according to Reuters coverage of the proceedings. Le Pen has maintained her innocence throughout, describing the case as politically motivated, and has signaled she would continue campaigning regardless as an activist if barred. The court’s decision comes with fewer than 10 months until the first round of the 2027 presidential election on April 18, followed by a potential runoff on May 2.
Jordan Bardella, the National Rally chairman and Le Pen’s designated successor, has expressed total support for his mentor and stands ready to lead the party into the race if necessary, a Le Monde assessment of potential outcomes found. Bardella has stated he and Le Pen could switch roles, with her as president and him as prime minister or vice versa. The ruling could mark the end of a family political dynasty that began when her father Jean-Marie Le Pen founded the National Front in 1972, the New York Times reported.
Le Pen took control of the party in 2011 and worked to rebrand it as the National Rally, expelling her father in 2015 over controversial remarks including those on the Holocaust, according to historical accounts compiled by France 24. The party achieved its strongest legislative result in 2024 with 143 seats, though an alliance of other parties blocked it from forming a government. A Reuters review of French politics indicated the verdict will effectively launch the 2027 presidential campaign in earnest regardless of the outcome.
The original trial involved 24 defendants including party officials and lawmakers, with 12 others joining Le Pen in appealing their convictions, court records reviewed by the Associated Press show. Le Pen’s former aide Catherine Griset received a two-year ban while several others including Louis Aliot and Wallerand de Saint-Just were given home detention terms with electronic tags. If the appeals court clears Le Pen the prosecutors could still challenge that in a higher court, potentially prolonging legal uncertainty into the election year.
Public opinion surveys have consistently shown Le Pen ahead of other contenders to succeed President Emmanuel Macron, who is term-limited, an Ifop polling summary referenced in multiple French media outlets indicated. The National Rally has moderated some positions under Le Pen to broaden its appeal beyond its traditional base, though critics continue to highlight its far-right origins. Legal experts cited by Le Monde warned that even an acquittal might not fully resolve the matter if further appeals reactivate the original penalties pending a final cassation decision.
