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WAM reported that Brent crude futures advanced to close at $73.15 per barrel on Monday after rebounding from a four-month low. The gain came as shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz declined in the wake of recent regional incidents including an attack on a supertanker. West Texas Intermediate crude followed suit with a more modest increase that lifted it above recent session lows near $69 per barrel. Market participants cited renewed supply concerns as the main driver behind the uptick despite a temporary truce between the United States and Iran.
The price movement reflects ongoing volatility that began with the February 2026 outbreak of hostilities involving US, Israeli and Iranian forces, according to multiple market updates. A US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed last week had initially eased fears and pushed prices lower earlier in the period. Shipping trackers noted a measurable reduction in daily transits through the critical waterway that carries about one-fifth of global oil supplies. The rebound reversed part of the prior session’s 4 percent decline that had taken Brent below $73 for the first time since before the conflict started.
Trading Economics data placed the Monday settlement above the recent four-month trough while highlighting persistent sensitivity to developments in the Persian Gulf. Iran has signaled it may impose fees on vessels crossing the strait, a step that could further tighten effective supply routes. Industry observers tracked the developments in real time as tanker operators adjusted schedules to mitigate risks. The overall market tone remained cautious even as the latest price recovery took hold.
The International Energy Agency has forecasted that global oil supply will outpace demand later in 2026 by a widening margin if current production levels continue. That outlook had contributed to downward pressure on prices before the latest geopolitical flare-ups. OPEC maintains its current output quotas with the group reporting that compliance among members stayed high through the first half of the year. Separate figures from the US Energy Information Administration showed commercial crude inventories in the United States rising modestly in recent weeks.
Gulf producers including Kuwait have calibrated fiscal planning around oil revenues at levels above the current trading range, an International Monetary Fund assessment found. The fund’s latest review estimated Kuwait’s fiscal breakeven price near $80 per barrel for the 2026 budget. Similar calculations for other GCC economies placed their thresholds between $70 and $90 depending on diversification progress. Regional authorities continue to monitor benchmark movements as they affect export income and investment flows.
Earlier in the trading week Brent had touched its lowest close since prior to the February escalation before the Hormuz-related concerns prompted buying interest. Analysts following the contract noted that low-Earth orbit satellite data on tanker movements helped confirm the drop in traffic volume. The June 29 settlement at $73.15 marked a partial recovery that left prices below the $75 threshold crossed only weeks earlier. Further developments in peace talks scheduled for this week could influence the next directional move.
