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The Met Office has warned that the El Niño event developing over the Pacific Ocean is set to be the strongest in living memory, pushing up global temperatures and increasing risks of extreme weather worldwide. Prof Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the UK agency, described the phenomenon as unprecedented and said he had never seen an El Niño signal this intense in forecasts. Current sea surface temperature anomalies already exceed 2C above normal in key areas, with projections indicating they could surpass 3C at peak later in 2026 and possibly approach 4C according to some climate groups, figures that would break records dating back to 1950.
A World Meteorological Organization update from June 2026 indicated an 80 percent likelihood of El Niño conditions emerging between June and August, with probabilities near or above 90 percent for continuation at least until November. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declared the event official that same month and assigned a 63 percent chance it will rank among the largest ever recorded. Scientists at Berkeley Earth have expressed growing confidence that the event will prove record-setting, with deeper ocean heat anomalies around 8C above normal at 100 meters depth providing a reservoir of additional energy.
The Met Office assessment found that significant heat released from the ocean into the atmosphere during such events typically elevates global average temperatures, especially in the calendar year after the winter peak. Dr Nick Dunstone, a climate scientist with the agency, stated this dynamic makes 2027 very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record. Reuters reporting on World Meteorological Organization projections noted that the underlying trend of human-caused climate change will intensify the impacts, leading to more severe droughts, heatwaves, heavy rainfall and related disasters.
The New York Times reported in mid-August that the El Niño is already causing dry spells and crop failures on three continents even before reaching full strength. Below-average southwest monsoon rains have affected South Asia through 2026 while Atlantic hurricane activity has been suppressed, resulting in only three named storms so far this season. International monitoring data also points to elevated risks of drought and bushfires in Australia together with increased flooding potential in Peru, Ecuador and the southern United States.
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization cautioned that the pattern could threaten tens of millions of people in vulnerable countries with crisis-level acute food insecurity. For the United Kingdom, the Met Office expects a greater chance of wet and stormy conditions across the northwest during autumn and early winter although the event was not a main factor in this summer’s heat. Experts from various forecasting bodies have compared the projected strength to notable past events such as those in 1998 and even 1877, underscoring the need for preparedness amid the amplified effects of long-term warming.
