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Oleksandr Syrskyi, who served as Ukraine’s commander-in-chief from 2024 until his dismissal over the summer after a public disagreement with the defence minister, told the BBC that Kyiv has stabilised the front line and broken Russia’s ability to advance. Syrskyi attributed the development to the heavy death toll inflicted on Russian troops, combined with Ukrainian technological improvements and a strategy of striking weak points in enemy lines while containing advances elsewhere. The former commander described Russia’s offensive ability as broken in the interview, noting that such limited progress signals a fundamental shift in the conflict’s dynamics.
In the first six months of 2026, Russian forces seized a total of just 61 square kilometres, according to figures Syrskyi provided to the BBC. This modest gain stands in contrast to earlier phases of the war and indicates that the front line has been stabilised, he added. The assessment aligns with broader patterns of positional warfare where neither side achieves rapid breakthroughs despite continued fighting.
The Institute for the Study of War has confirmed similar trends in its reporting, noting that in September 2026 Moscow lost more territory than it captured across the theatre. Independent open-source analysis from the institute highlights how Ukrainian counteroffensives have disrupted Russian operational plans in several sectors. Such developments underscore the high costs associated with incremental Russian movements.
Earlier statements from previous Ukrainian military leadership, including Valerii Zaluzhnyi, had already characterised the conflict as a positional stalemate driven by drone surveillance, electronic warfare and precision strikes that limit manoeuvrability. Assessments from the Swedish Defence Research Agency indicate that throughout 2024 and 2025 both sides adapted to this deadlock, resulting in a strategic impasse where advances come at disproportionate expense. Russian forces have doubled their ground strength since the invasion’s start but continue to face challenges in converting numerical advantages into decisive gains.
Ukrainian operations such as the effort around Lyman in Donetsk region, dubbed Operation Vivaldi, have collapsed elements of Russian pincer movements and forced Moscow’s units into defensive postures, an Institute for the Study of War analysis found. These actions liberated up to 176 square kilometres in some reports while preventing encirclement of Ukrainian-held areas. The operation’s success demonstrates Kyiv’s capacity to seize the initiative even as overall front lines remain largely static.
Russian adaptations including enhanced drone technologies and consolidated logistics have allowed limited advances in areas such as Kostyantynivka and western Zaporizhia, according to subsequent Institute for the Study of War updates. Yet these movements occur at a walking pace and depend heavily on favourable conditions that reduce Ukrainian drone effectiveness. Manpower recruitment continues on both sides, with Moscow signing up roughly 30,000 contract soldiers monthly while Ukraine faces ongoing mobilisation hurdles amid rising desertion cases.
