The United Arab Emirates announced its departure from OPEC on April 29 2026 after decades of membership citing the need to prioritise national interests and expand oil production beyond cartel quotas. The decision comes as the Gulf producer has invested billions to lift capacity toward 5 million barrels per day while remaining constrained by output limits that have kept actual production around 3.2 million to 3.4 million barrels per day. Observers said the move would have limited immediate market impact because of ongoing disruptions from the US-Israel war on Iran that began on February 28 2026 and has restricted flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
According to the Al Jazeera report the UAE had grown its production capacity to 4.8 million barrels per day before the conflict but was permitted to produce only 3.2 million barrels per day under its OPEC agreement. The country has exported roughly 1.7 million barrels per day of crude and refined fuels via the Fujairah terminal on the Gulf of Oman bypassing the strait which carries about 21 million barrels per day or roughly 20 percent of global oil and LNG supplies according to US Energy Information Administration data. International Energy Agency figures show the UAE’s total oil output is projected to reach 5.2 million barrels per day in 2027 following the exit as ADNOC accelerates expansion with 150 billion dollars in planned investments through 2030.
Energy strategist Kingsmill Bond at think tank Ember told Al Jazeera the UAE is preparing for a post-war world where oil demand is in decline after reaching peak levels. “They are clearly preparing for the period after the war because now that we have reached peak oil demand and we are entering a new environment – they want to be free from the constraints of OPEC” Bond said. “The UAE is preparing for a world after the Iran war where oil demand is in decline and OPEC’s power to maintain control and discipline will be weaker” he added contrasting the strategy with Saudi Arabia’s preference for production caps to support longer-term prices.
OPEC which was founded in the 1960s by Saudi Arabia Kuwait Iran Iraq and Venezuela has seen its global market share fall to around 33 percent from 50 percent during the 1973 embargo according to historical assessments cited in the report. The group has survived previous exits by members including Qatar Indonesia Ecuador and Angola and now operates alongside 10 additional producers in the broader OPEC+ alliance that accounts for about 46 percent of world supply in 2025 and 2026 per US Energy Information Administration forecasts. Robin Mills a non-resident fellow at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy and CEO of Qamar Energy in Dubai told Al Jazeera the cartel will be less influential but will not disappear noting that collective action has proved effective in crises such as the 2014 price crash and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Saudi officials downplayed the significance of the UAE exit describing it as more political than economic. Mohammad al-Sabban Saudi Arabia’s former senior oil adviser told Al Jazeera “It’s not a major blow especially for OPEC+ which consists of 23 countries and one country going out doesn’t mean anything.” He attributed the decision to Western influence aimed at dividing the cartel adding that “the UAE knows that OPEC adjusts production to maintain an equilibrium and nothing else.”
The withdrawal also reflects diverging regional policies within the Gulf Cooperation Council amid the Iran conflict which has closed most access to the Strait of Hormuz and hit UAE infrastructure particularly hard. Anas Abdoun an international consultant in energy and global affairs wrote for Al Jazeera that the departure signals “a deep regional rupture between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi” and differing visions for Gulf order with the UAE favouring more assertive approaches compared with Saudi Qatar and Omani diplomacy. Gregory Gause III an associate fellow at the Middle East Institute said in a webinar that the war appears to have exacerbated existing differences felt by the Emirates.
UAE officials have indicated the country could increase capacity beyond 5 million barrels per day to as much as 6 million if market conditions allow according to statements reported by Reuters in 2025. The exit occurs against a backdrop of global supply adjustments with OPEC+ production falling sharply in March 2026 because of the regional disruptions that cut output by more than 9 million barrels per day that month per International Energy Agency data. Analysts said any resumption of full navigation through the strait could allow the UAE to add up to 1.6 million barrels per day of additional supply equivalent to about 1.5 percent of global production potentially reshaping market dynamics in a period of softening demand.
