The World Meteorological Organization signaled an increasing likelihood of the El Nino phenomenon returning by mid-2026 in a report released on April 24, 2026. Rapidly rising sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific point to possible development of the warming event between May and July, the organization said. Global seasonal forecasts indicate above-average temperatures nearly worldwide for the coming months, with variations in precipitation patterns expected to follow.
The WMO’s Global Seasonal Climate Update highlighted a notable shift in the Equatorial Pacific, with models from centers including the BCC, C3S, DWD, IRI, NOAA and UK Met Office aligning on the emergence. Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Chief of Climate Prediction at WMO, said, “After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Niño, followed by further intensification in the months that follow.” The report was carried by Qatar News Agency.
El Nino is characterized by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, the WMO report explained. The phenomenon typically occurs every two to seven years and can last between nine and 12 months. It influences weather patterns across the globe, often leading to extremes such as droughts and floods in different regions.
Data from the WMO showed that the 2023-24 El Nino was one of the five strongest on record. A study in Nature found that it drove global mean surface temperatures to 1.58 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels for the period from July 2023 to June 2024. An analysis by Welthungerhilfe indicated that more than 60 million people worldwide were affected by related droughts, floods and food price increases.
Subsequent WMO updates in May and June 2026 confirmed the onset, placing an 80 percent probability on El Nino conditions for June through August. The World Meteorological Organization reported probabilities near or above 90 percent for the event persisting at least until November. NOAA’s ENSO Diagnostic Discussion stated that El Nino conditions are present and expected to strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-27, with a 63 percent chance it becomes very strong.
Forecasts for the June-July-August 2026 season from the WMO show increased chances of above-normal rainfall in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific east of the Date Line and southern parts of Africa. The organization projected below-normal rainfall over the tropical Indian Ocean, the equatorial Atlantic, the Indian subcontinent, northern South America and much of Australia. These patterns align with typical El Nino influences on global precipitation.
The WMO stressed in its June 2, 2026, El Nino/La Nina Update that advanced forecasts enable preparations to protect lives and livelihoods. It added that the time for informed decision-making, planning and preparedness is now. WMO assessments also forecast above-average temperatures over almost all land areas during the June to August period.
