ع
The Kenya Meteorological Department has confirmed that a strong El Niño signal is firmly established and continuing to intensify with forecasts showing a near 100 per cent likelihood of the phenomenon persisting through February 2027. Acting Director Edward Maina Muriuki stated that exceptionally warm tropical Pacific conditions will drive above-average rainfall exceeding 125 per cent of seasonal norms across more than 40 counties including Nairobi Kisumu and Mombasa. County governments from Kajiado to Narok have mapped flood-prone zones such as riverbanks and low-lying urban areas while establishing disaster committees that include the Kenya Red Cross and fire services to identify evacuation sites in churches and community halls.
A National Disaster Operations Centre assessment found that approximately 1.5 million Kenyans could be affected by the rains with as many as 500,000 potentially displaced from homes in high-risk counties such as Nairobi Busia and Mandera. The centre has prioritised drills in urban hotspots where drainage blockages and infrastructure strain have historically compounded flooding impacts. In informal settlements around Nairobi residents have voiced particular alarm with one telling the BBC that the coming floods could prove fatal and stating it can kill us given the lack of adequate barriers against rising waters.
During the 2023-2024 El Niño floods the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies documented 490 deaths along with the displacement of more than 729,000 people and widespread destruction of farmland and livestock. Those events also triggered outbreaks of waterborne diseases while damaging roads schools and health facilities across 46 counties. The precedent has prompted current planning to focus on both immediate rescue capabilities and longer-term resilience measures according to government briefings.
Cabinet Secretary for Environment Nancy Barasa outlined a shift toward people-centred early warning systems that translate technical forecasts into actionable steps for communities during a Wednesday briefing reported by the Kenya News Agency. A 100-day action plan addresses legal frameworks staffing and data systems while a national crisis communication committee works to close gaps in last-mile information delivery. Multi-agency teams have pre-positioned supplies and conducted joint exercises involving 300 officers in coastal areas to handle marine safety and casualty management.
Health officials have warned that flooding will heighten risks of cholera typhoid malaria and dengue fever as contaminated water sources proliferate in saturated zones. The Ministry of Health has directed all 47 counties to stockpile medical supplies and reinforce sanitation infrastructure in anticipation of increased patient loads at clinics. In addition to disease concerns the Kenya Maritime Authority has issued alerts for rough seas and strong winds along the coastline that could disrupt fishing and shipping activities through December.
Economic modelling cited by PreventionWeb indicates that severe disruptions from the rains could result in national GDP losses ranging from 1.1 to 1.5 per cent with agricultural output bearing the brunt through crop failures and livestock losses. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network noted that while the precipitation may support pasture recovery in drought-affected rangelands it also threatens low-lying agropastoral zones with flash floods and landslides. County administrators in Elgeyo Marakwet and Bomet have organised community meetings to advise farmers on adjusted planting schedules and to reinforce vulnerable slopes where previous landslides destroyed homes and infrastructure.
