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A new survey of Texas Hispanic likely voters conducted for the Cook Political Report and TelevisaUnivision found Democratic candidates leading their Republican opponents by a two-to-one margin with the key voting bloc. The poll, conducted from late August to early September 2026 by Hart Research and OnMessage, showed President Donald Trump’s job approval rating at 33 percent among the group that swung toward him in 2024. In the state’s Senate contest, Democrat James Talarico led Republican Ken Paxton 63 percent to 30 percent among Hispanic voters, while Gina Hinojosa led Gov. Greg Abbott 60 percent to 33 percent in the gubernatorial matchup, according to the Cook Political Report.
The findings point to an erosion of Republican gains that peaked in the 2024 election, when exit polls cited by the Texas Tribune showed Trump capturing 55 percent of the Latino vote in Texas compared with 44 percent for Kamala Harris. That performance doubled Trump’s county wins in areas within 20 miles of the border, where he carried 14 of 18 such counties and swept all four in the Rio Grande Valley. The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin noted the 55 percent figure represented a 13-point increase from Trump’s 2020 share among Texas Latinos and a record high for a Republican presidential candidate in the state.
Nationally, Pew Research Center analysis of validated voters placed Trump’s support among Hispanic voters at 48 percent in 2024, with Harris receiving 51 percent. The research group reported this marked a substantial shift from 2020, when Joe Biden won Hispanics by 25 points, and from 2016 when Hillary Clinton carried the group by 38 points. Pew Research Center data further showed that changes in turnout patterns among Hispanic eligible voters contributed to the tighter margin, as those who voted only in 2024 favored Trump by a 60 percent to 37 percent edge over Harris.
Recent Equis Research polling indicated that Latino support for Democrats in Texas has improved from the 2024 low point, though it has not yet returned to levels seen in the 2018 midterms. The group found that only 85 percent of 2024 Latino Trump voters in Texas expressed support for a Republican congressional candidate in 2026, with 10 percent backing a Democrat. Equis Research noted that primary turnout data from 2026 offered mixed signals but cautioned against overinterpreting it as a predictor for general election behavior given Texas’s unique local dynamics.
The shift back toward Democrats comes as Trump’s approval has declined among the demographic that proved pivotal to his national victory. Axios reporting on the Pew Research Center study highlighted that Trump’s performance among Latinos was the strongest for any Republican presidential candidate in modern times dating back to 1960. In Texas, the Dallas Morning News reported that the 2024 movement toward Trump was especially pronounced in South Texas, where several heavily Hispanic counties flipped or narrowed Democratic margins significantly compared with prior cycles.
Analysts at the Texas Politics Project observed that pre-2024 polling trends among Texas Latinos, including declining Democratic party identification and favorable views on issues such as the economy and border security, foreshadowed the Republican gains. University of Texas researchers Jim Henson and Joshua Blank wrote that Latino identification with Democrats had not exceeded 53 percent in their surveys since 2020, while Republican identification rose incrementally. The New York Magazine analysis of the Cook Political Report poll described the current Democratic advantage among Texas Hispanics as a significant reversal from 2024, when Trump carried the group by 11 points statewide.
In the Rio Grande Valley subsample of the Cook survey, Democrats held a 14-point lead on the generic congressional ballot, a finding that carries implications for three competitive House districts. The Latino Community Foundation poll cited by USA Today similarly showed likely Texas voters planning to support Democrats for Congress by a two-to-one margin. These developments suggest that while Hispanic voters contributed substantially to Trump’s 2024 success, the tide may be turning in Texas as the 2026 midterms approach.
