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Prime Minister Mark Carney told the New York Times last month that his administration had reviewed the remote chance of a US-led military incursion even though he described the probability as extremely low. A BBC News report published October 3 noted that Carney framed the exercise as responsible risk management rather than an expectation of conflict amid strained trade relations and public remarks about Canada becoming the 51st American state. The comments have prompted renewed discussion of bilateral military planning that had largely remained dormant for decades.
Canadian Armed Forces planners produced a theoretical model earlier this year that anticipates American forces overwhelming key positions within days according to the Globe and Mail. Senior government sources told the newspaper in January that Canadian troops would then shift to guerrilla tactics while seeking reinforcements from allies including Britain and France. The assessment constitutes the first formal exercise of its kind in a century the Globe and Mail added.
Historical Canadian planning for conflict with the United States dates to the years immediately after the First World War. Military.com reported that Lieutenant Colonel James Sutherland Brown authored Defence Scheme No. 1 in 1921 calling for rapid incursions into northern US states to delay an expected invasion and allow time for British support. The document envisioned strikes toward Seattle Spokane and Minneapolis before planned retreats that would destroy bridges and rail lines.
The United States developed its own counterpart plan known as War Plan Red in 1930. According to a 19FortyFive analysis the American blueprint included seizing Halifax with chemical agents and capturing major Canadian industrial and transportation hubs. Both sets of documents remained theoretical exercises that were never activated and were declassified long after relations between the neighbors had stabilized.
In parallel with military reviews Canada has moved to lessen its strategic dependence on the United States through diplomatic and economic initiatives. Reuters reported on September 16 that Carney’s office announced a formal application to join the British-led Joint Expeditionary Force a rapid-response grouping of 10 NATO nations. The Associated Press noted on September 29 that Ottawa had endorsed a C$33 billion expansion of the Kitimat LNG terminal to double export capacity and open new Asian markets.
Defence leaders have also called for significant growth in military personnel. The BBC News article cited a recent recommendation from Canada’s defence chief to expand the forces by as many as 300,000 lightly trained citizen soldiers. Analysts quoted in a CBC News dispatch observed that such measures reflect heightened focus on contingency planning even though a senior US commander recently dismissed the entire notion of invasion as preposterous.
Carney has repeatedly characterized the scenario as an extreme tail risk that prudent leadership must nevertheless consider. Multiple outlets including the New York Post and CTV News reported that the prime minister declined to detail specific preparations but emphasized the distinction between base-case assumptions and worst-case reviews. Officials continue to balance these assessments with ongoing efforts to resolve trade differences that have escalated since the imposition of reciprocal tariffs earlier in the year.
